23rd Update of Public Debt Clock
19th of April 2016, Rafał Trzeciakowski
- The estimated amount of explicit public debt, taking into account exchange rate fluctuation of the Polish zloty, is raising now from PLN 923,3 billion at the end of December 2015 to 1004,5 billion zloty at the end of December 2016, which is almost PLN 222 million per day, PLN 9,3 million per hour and PLN 2568 per second.These calculations take into account the cancellation of bonds acquired by ZUS (The Polish Social Insurance Institution – governmentally-run compulsory defined contribution unfunded pension pillar) from OFE (Open Pension Funds – privately-run compulsory defined contribution funded pension pillar) and other changes in the pension system, after the Constitutional Court found them constitutional. Estimations were conducted with an assumption of a constant April 14th Polish zloty exchange rate (4,30 PLN/EUR).
- Public debt (general government debt) per inhabitant is rising from PLN 25 465 at the end of December 2015 to PLN 27 023 at the end of December 2015. The number of Polish citizens was adopted on the basis of the national census of resident population (37.2 million people in 2011), published by GUS (Central Statistical Office).
- The update of„Public Debt Clock”takes into account the data published by the Ministry of Finance regarding the debt at the end of December 2015 and GDP forecast from budget assumption for year 2016.
- We are currently in the process of a thorough update of the implicit public debt clock, which is motivated by the changes in the pension system and an update of long-term demographic and economic forecasts. In particular, update comprises:
- The effects of the introduction of “voluntarism” in the OFE pillar, which decreases the flow of contributions to the pension funds and increases contributions flowing to the ZUS. This increases implicit debt liabilities. These changes require further analysis, as they affect to a varying degree future retiree cohorts.
- Update of ZUS accounts: update, besides the contributions since the activation of the public debt clock, has to take into account the effects of the nationalization of OFE-owned government bonds.
- Taking into account the safety slider, which creates additional commitments for the ZUS.
- The new long-term economic growth and labour market forecasts published in the Ageing Report 2015. Labour market forecasts affect the pace of ZUS individual accounts indexation and the indexation of the already granted pensions, as well as the demographic forecasts affect the probability of benefit payments and time of their collection.
- The effects of quota indexation, which has disturbed the previous proportions of pension levels.
* debt of public institutions both of central and local level, according to the ESA2010 methodology
*explicit public debt
Receipt from the state 2014
End of April is the period of the income tax settlement in Poland. The Civil Development Forum took it as a good opportunity to show Poles how much money the Polish state spends and on what are they spent. It is definitely not a small amount; in the 2014 alone spendings of the state oscillated around the sum of 723 bln PLN, and speaking more lucidly 19 409 PLN per person. The fourth issue of the Receipt from the state, prepared by the Civil Development Forum shows how this amount was spent.
It is always important to remind that public spendings comprise not only those governmental, but also those made by local authorities, self-governments, National Healthcare Found (NFZ), public retirement funds and other public institutions.
By the end of April some of the public institutions still have not published their detailed financial reports for the year 2014, and therefore our calculation should be treated as approximate. They are designed to present the scale of particular spendings per capita. The idea of the Receipt from the state was invented in Slovakia, where it is the flagship project of the INESS think-tank (In Poland similar calculations are carried out also by the Globalization Institute).
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