Methodology

civil_development_forum

Updates:
Aleksander Łaszek – Vice-chairman of the Supervisory Board, Main Economist Civil Development Forum
mobile: +48 695 286 386,
e-mail: aleksander.laszek@for.org.pl

Rafał Trzeciakowski – Economist Civil Development Forum
e-mail: rafal.trzeciakowski@for.org.pl

October 26th 2016 r., Rafał Trzeciakowski

25th Update

Public Debt Clock

*explicit public debt

  • The estimated amount of explicit public debt, taking into account exchange rate fluctuation of the Polish zloty, is rising now from PLN 970,1 billion at the end of June 2016 to 997,5 billion zloty at the end of December 2016, which is PLN 149,6 million per day, PLN 6,2 million per hour and PLN 1731 per second. Estimations were conducted with an assumption of a constant October 25thPolish zloty exchange rate (4,31 PLN/EUR).
  • Public debt (general government debt) per inhabitant is rising from PLN 25 552 at the end of June 2016 to PLN 26 272 at the end of December 2016. The number of Polish citizens was adopted on the basis of the resident population (almost 38 million people), published by GUS (Central Statistical Office).
  • The update of „Public Debt Clock” takes into account the data published by the Ministry of Finance regarding the debt at the end of June 2016, currency rates forecast from the governments September debt management strategy and debt forecast from the 2017 budgetary assumptions.

* debt of public institutions both of central and local level, according to the ESA2010 methodology

* explicit public debt

July 14th 2016 r., Rafał Trzeciakowski

24th Update

Public Debt Clock

*explicit public debt

  • The estimated amount of explicit public debt, taking into account exchange rate fluctuation of the Polish zloty, is rising now from PLN 921,4 billion at the end of March 2016 to 1015 billion zloty at the end of December 2016, which is almost PLN 256 million per day, PLN 10,7 million per hour and PLN 2961 per second. These calculations take into account the cancellation of bonds acquired by ZUS (The Polish Social Insurance Institution – governmentally-run compulsory defined contribution unfunded pension pillar) from OFE (Open Pension Funds – privately-run compulsory defined contribution funded pension pillar) and other changes in the pension system, after the Constitutional Court ruled them constitutional. Estimations were conducted with an assumption of a constant July 13thPolish zloty exchange rate (4,40 PLN/EUR).
  • Public debt (general government debt) per inhabitant is rising from PLN 26 123 at the end of March 2016 to PLN 26 962 at the end of December 2016. The number of Polish citizens was adopted on the basis of the resident population (almost 38 million people), published by GUS (Central Statistical Office).
  • The update of „Public Debt Clock” takes into account the data published by the Ministry of Finance regarding the debt at the end of March 2016 and GDP forecast from budget assumption for year 2016.
  • We are currently in the process of a thorough update of the implicit public debt clock, which is motivated by the changes in the pension system and an update of long-term demographic and economic forecasts. In particular, update comprises:

1) The effects of the introduction of “voluntarism” in the OFE pillar, which decreases the flow of contributions to the pension funds and increases contributions flowing to the ZUS. This increases implicit debt liabilities. These changes require further analysis, as they affect to a varying degree future retiree cohorts.

2) Update of ZUS accounts: update, besides the contributions since the activation of the public debt clock, has to take into account the effects of the nationalization of OFE-owned government bonds.

3) Taking into account the safety slider, which creates additional commitments for the ZUS.

4) The new long-term economic growth and labour market forecasts published in the Ageing Report 2015. Labour market forecasts affect the pace of ZUS individual accounts indexation and the indexation of the already granted pensions, as well as the demographic forecasts affect the probability of benefit payments and time of their collection.

5) The effects of quota indexation, which has disturbed the previous proportions of pension levels.

* debt of public institutions both of central and local level, according to the ESA2010 methodology

* explicit public debt